Andrew Odlyzko(University of Minnesota)
The History of Communications and its Implications for the Internet
The Internet is just the latest in a long succession of communication technologies, starting with ordinary mail, and moving
on through the telegraph and the telephone. Their histories show several repeating patterns that are likely to be relevant for the
Internet. For example, there has been a historical trend to put too much emphasis on content instead of connectivity.
Also, the typical story for each service has been of rising quality, decreasing prices, and increasing total revenues, as well as prices
that become simpler. These historical analogies suggest that the Internet will evolve in a similar way, towards simplicity. The
schemes that aim to provide differentiated service levels and sophisticated pricing schemes are unlikely to be widely adopted.